|
Become a subscriber to The Agile Trader's Index Options Service and you'll immediately start receiving.
Pricing: $149/month. Or receive 2 months free on our discounted contract for $1495/year!
PERFORMANCE
Note: These trades were executed in customer accounts in real time on the Dynamic Trading System’s signals. However, because these results are representative of a compilation of accounts (and not one single account) and trades were executed by our Auto-Trade brokers who held limited power of attorney for the customer accounts, and not directly by The Agile Trader or by Dog Dreams Unlimited Inc., results are, for all regulatory and compliance purposes, hypothetical with all disclosures and caveats applicable as described below. Cumulative totals: April 2005 - July 2007 Initial Trading Stake: $7,500
2007
2006 Index Options Performance 2005 Index Options Performance
Auto-Trade the Dynamic Trading Systemwith The Agile Trader is owned and operated by Dog Dreams Unlimited Inc. (DDUI), a Commodity Trading Advisor and Guaranteed Introducing Broke of Peregrine Financial Group Inc. DDUI is a member of the National Futures Association and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Important Disclosure
Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy/sell Index Options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this Web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Performance results are hypothetical. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as a lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.
The Agile Trader and all individuals affiliated with The Agile Trader assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results.
The Agile Trader is published by Dog Dreams Unlimited Inc. (DDUI). As a publisher of a financial newsletter of general and regular circulation, we cannot tender individual investment advice. Only a registered broker or investment adviser may advise you individually on the suitability and performance of your portfolio or specific investments.
In making any investment decision, you will rely solely on your own review and examination of the fact and records relating to such investments. Past performance of our recommendations is not an indication of future performance. The publisher shall have no liability of whatever nature in respect of any claims, damages, loss, or expense arising out of or in connection with the reliance by you on the contents of our Web site, any promotion, published material, alert, or update.
There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. DDUI and all individuals affiliated with DDUI, assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results.
TRADING STRATEGYThe Dynamic Trading System (DTS) currently trades in the Index Options markets using QQQQ and SPY options. The System also trades the E-Mini S&P 500 and the E-Mini Nasdaq 100 futures contracts as well as Rydex Funds and the QQQQ and SPY ETFs. The System trades signals, both long and short, derived from a set of proprietary algorithms applied to the DTS Oscillators. The System was developed via extensive testing in over the past 7 years' data (in bull, bear, and flat markets), and applied through seasonal and cyclical filters. The Hedged Dynamic Trading System (HDTS) trades the Dynamic Trading System’s signals using a combination of e-mini futures contracts and options on e-mini futures contracts to smooth the volatility of the System’s performance without cutting deeply into the upside of its returns. Futures options contracts may be bought and sold “around” the System’s signals according to our discretionary technical analysis of market. The goal of this portfolio is to increase the Sharpe Ratio of the DTS by decreasing the standard deviation of returns. The HDTS will be offered beginning in June, 2006 through DDUI Commodity Trading Advisor.
Research is ongoing on the subjects of applying the DTS to variable time frames as well as to international markets. New strategies may be available for trading later in 2006.
BIOGRAPHICAL INFORMATIONAdam Oliensis began developing his trading strategies in 1996 and has been a full-time independent trader since 1997. While the end of the bull market wiped out many of his trading colleagues, Mr. Oliensis adapted his methodologies to work in any market environment; in other words, to take what the market gives him. From September of 2001 through May of 2002, Mr. Oliensis published a technical newsletter at a multi-million-dollar on-line financial website, Bullmarket.com. He left Bullmarket.com to further his financial editing and publishing career at 21st Century Alert, working there from May of 2002 through June of 2005.
In October of 2004 Mr. Oliensis became an Associated Person of Precision Futures and continued his work in Single-Stock Futures. In June of 2005 he became an Informational Commodity Trade Advisor under his own auspices and launched his Dynamic Trading System in the Index Futures market. Mr. Oliensis formed Dog Dreams Unlimited Inc. in January of 2006 with the purpose of operating as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker. Dog Dreams Unlimited Inc. is now also a registered Commodity Trade Advisor and member of the National Futures Association. Prior to his work in trading methodologies, Mr. Oliensis worked as an actor, producer, and writer in film, theatre, and television. Specifically, he has been a member of the Screen Actors Guild since June of 1984. As a theatre producer he was nominated for a Tony award in 1993. His plays have been produced in New York, Los Angeles and regionally. His films have been released commercially and seen at film festivals.
Mr. Oliensis graduated with honors from the University of Wisconsin-Madison with a B.A. degree in Philosophy of Language. His thesis applied Wittgenstein’s theories of language to Kant’s metaphysics of ethics.
There have never been any material administrative, civil or criminal actions (whether pending, on appeal or concluded) against Mr. Oliensis. HISTORY AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE DYNAMIC TRADING SYSTEMbyAdam Oliensis
I’ve been a full-time independent trader since the mid 1990s. I was lucky enough, or unlucky enough, depending on how you look at it, to have cut my teeth in trading during the heady days of the Great Bull Market. I learned about fundamentals, and then I learned about technical analysis. I learned about stocks, options, and finally futures contracts. And it seemed to me that I had stepped into a goldmine. It was easy back then. You found a tech stock that you liked and maybe even understood. You bought calls. You waited a couple of weeks and then you sold them for a profit. Then you rolled those calls up and out and waited a little more and then you took even more profits.
Then the Great Bear Market came. And every single trader I knew from “back in the day” was wiped out. I got hurt too. Big time. The game had changed on so many different levels that everything I thought I knew turned out to be essentially useless.
So, I started over. From scratch. I began to try to understand what was really driving the market. I began the search for a trading model (or system) that would work in bull markets, bear markets, and trendless markets as well.
I began the search for a system that would help to minimize the stress of trading too. Why? Because, the wild, emotional swings were taking their toll on my personal life, on my marriage, and on my relationships with my kids.
I wanted a system that would give me clear signals based on objective criteria and that would make me money. I wanted it to have clear risk/reward parameters and I wanted it to take just minutes per day to implement at the close of each trading session.
I started with some simple premises and some preconceptions about how to analyze the market. And then I asked my computer some questions about how the market has tended to behave in the past. My computer told me…I thought about what it said, and then I asked it some more questions about the market’s behavior. My computer told me some more things, some of which confirmed some of my preconceptions and others of which were surprises to me.
My computer and I talked like that for hours and hours. We talked well past midnight. We talked into the wee hours night after night. We talked for months. (Of course we talked in the language of mathematics.)
I made observations based on impressions I had about the market and then I asked my computer whether those observations tended to be true or not. Often there were grains of truth in my observations, but my computer answered my questions quantitatively and then told me EXACTLY how close to (or far from) the truth my observations tended to be. And so, using this dialectic method my computer and I derived a trading system that has, over the past 6+ years, had an extremely strong tendency to be profitable.
Our goal in developing this trading model was to create a completely mechanical system that would require no real-time discretion for the trader. Our goal was to gain the best statistical edge that we could discover and codify.
And in our hypothetical back-testing we found what we were looking for. The numbers on these tests speak for themselves. Now it merely remains for the trader to execute the model’s signals in strict accordance with its rules.
We believe that such a system has a terrifically valuable place as a part of one's portfolio, especially as it can increase the co-variance among the various segments of that portfolio, which co-variance is such an important part of modern portfolio theory.
For the most part the system ignores price and derives its signals from proprietary algorithms based on non-price-related market data. In hypothetical back-testing over periods of years and in a variety of market environments some of the most efficient values for these algorithms turned out to be extremely surprising and counterintuitive. And there will likely be many times when the System-generated trades look, to the naked eye, completely insane.
There will be losses in trading this system. Indeed, if we trade 100 times, our hypothetical tests suggest that the System will have in the neighborhood of 20-35 losses. There will be points in time when the system makes what will look to be precisely the wrong move. There will be times when you (and I) may feel discouraged by the results on individual trades or on a series of trades. And there may be draw-downs that will look eminently preventable in retrospect. But, if the market continues to display roughly the properties that it has over the past 5 or 6 years then our studies suggest that over time we should have significantly more winners than losers and the value of the trading portfolio would be likely to increase significantly, no matter whether the market rises, falls, or goes nowhere.
Over the long term our tests suggest that the System is likely to trade the SPY options contracts about 2 round-trips per month and the QQQQ options contracts up to 4 round-trips per month.
There is no bullishness or bearishness in the system. Only a quantitative approach to what is likely to occur based on how the market has behaved in the past...and on our part a slavish devotion to trading the System according to its rules, both long and short, as well as to maintaining a "statistical head" about it.
We are simply trading the rules that have tended to work best in our hypothetical tests over the broadest array of circumstances.
We will monitor the market's properties and tweak the system only if and when we find criteria that improve its long-term statistical edges in meaningful ways.
Of course past performance cannot guarantee future returns. Let’s say that again, just to be clear: Past performance is NOT a guarantee of future returns.
On the other hand, while there is significant risk of loss in trading commodity futures, understanding how the market has behaved in the past can certainly be helpful in prognosticating what trades may have tendencies toward profitability in the future. And if you think about it, we have 2 choices: either we can trade a system that HAS performed well in back-testing or we can trade a system that HAS NOT performed well in back-testing. Neither is a guarantee of future returns, but given the choice between the 2…well, you'll have to be the judge of which seems the wiser alternative to you.
As with any real-world implementation of a theoretical model, results will vary slightly from those achieved on paper, but we should be able to mimic the model’s performance very closely going forward.
Adam Oliensis The Agile Trader
|
